FKF Premier League · Round 7 · Ruaraka Stadium
Kick-off in your time, where to watch, the shape of both sides and a selection we record in public.
- 12:00 WAT · Nigeria
- 14:00 EAT · Kenya
- 13:00 SAST · South Africa
- 11:00 GMT · Ghana
- 14:00 EAT · Uganda
2 · Probabilities
The model’s numbers
- TUS
- 38%
- fair 2.64
- Draw
- 29%
- fair 3.50
- SHA
- 34%
- fair 2.98
Expected goals 1.18 v 1.09; most likely score 1-1; form sample 5 and 5 matches.
3 · Selection
The model call
Model call
Double chance: Tusker or Draw- Model probability
- 66%
- Confidence
- Outside the floor
- shown for the record, not a selection
- Reference price
- None
- probability-only until the odds feed
- Published
- 2026-11-12
- model v1.3.0
Every market, from the same scoreline grid
| Market | Pick | Prob. | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Tusker or Draw | 66% | below the floor |
| Over 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 Goals | 66% | below the floor |
| Under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 Goals | 60% | below the floor |
| Over under goals | Under 2.5 Goals | 60% | below the floor |
| Draw no bet | Tusker (draw no bet) | 53% | below the floor |
| Both teams to score | Both Teams to Score | 46% | below the floor |
| Over 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 Goals | 40% | below the floor |
| Match result (1X2) | Tusker to win | 38% | below the floor |
| Half time full time | Draw / Tusker | 33% | long shot |
| Win to nil | Tusker to win to nil | 23% | long shot |
| Score draw | Score draw | 18% | long shot |
| Btts and win | Tusker to win and both teams to score | 15% | long shot |
| Correct score | 1-1 | 13% | long shot |
| Nil nil draw | 0-0 draw | 10% | long shot |
How double chance settles. A model call beside the day’s published selection, settled in public like every other number here.
18+. Gambling helplines for Nigeria, Kenya, South Africa, Ghana and Uganda are on each country’s betting guide. Probabilities are the model\u2019s own numbers, never a promise.
4 · Evidence and team news
Expected line-ups
Line-ups appear here about an hour before kick-off, as soon as the feed carries them.
5 · Market explanation
Double chance
Cover two of the three outcomes at a shorter price. Read the guide.
6 · Betting options
Where you can act on it
7 · Methodology and record
How this call was made
Model v1.3.0 · desk Wanjiru Kamau · methodology · our full record · Tusker v Shabana head-to-head