Copa del Rey · 1st Round · Estadio Polideportivo Municipal
Kick-off in your time, where to watch, the shape of both sides and a selection we record in public.
- 19:00 WAT · Nigeria
- 21:00 EAT · Kenya
- 20:00 SAST · South Africa
- 18:00 GMT · Ghana
- 21:00 EAT · Uganda
1 · Football assessment
The game in brief
Key takeaways
- Kick-off 19:00 WAT, 21:00 EAT, 20:00 SAST.
- The model's call is Tarancón or Draw at 72%, a model call below the confidence floor, shown for the record.
- Automated summary: the full preview, when written, sits in the evidence section.
Automated desk summary from the feed and the model, written before kick-off and never edited after it. Tarancón play Levante in the Copa del Rey (1st Round) on 2026-11-12 at Estadio Polideportivo Municipal, kick-off 19:00 WAT in Lagos, 21:00 EAT in Nairobi, 20:00 SAST in Johannesburg, 18:00 GMT in Accra, 21:00 EAT in Kampala.
The model's call is Tarancón or Draw at 72%, a model call below the confidence floor, shown for the record. The model reads expected goals 1.38 for Tarancón and 1.04 for Levante, 2.42 in all; home win 45%, draw 27%, away win 28%. Probabilities are the model's own numbers from both sides' results over the last year, the venue split and the head-to-head; there is no reference price yet.
Form
Tarancón have no completed match on the feed yet this season.
Levante form, most recent first: D 0-0 at celta-de-vigo; L 0-2 v atletico-de-madrid; L 1-2 at Real Sociedad; W 3-1 v Athletic Club; D 1-1 at deportivo-a-coruna; D 3-3 v Sevilla.
Table and Head-to-Head
Neither side is in a league table the feed carries for this competition.
The feed holds no earlier meeting between the two.
The Markets
Most likely on the market list: Tarancón or Draw 72%; Over 1.5 Goals 70%; Tarancón (draw no bet) 61%; Under 2.5 Goals 57%; Under 2.5 Goals 57%.
Every probability is a model read, never a promise. Bet only what you can afford to lose; 18+ only.
FAQ
What time is Tarancón v Levante?
Kick-off is 19:00 WAT in Lagos, 21:00 EAT in Nairobi, 20:00 SAST in Johannesburg, 18:00 GMT in Accra, 21:00 EAT in Kampala on 2026-11-12.
What is the model call for Tarancón v Levante?
Tarancón or Draw at 72%. The model reads expected goals 1.38 for Tarancón and 1.04 for Levante, 2.42 in all; home win 45%, draw 27%, away win 28%.
Where can I watch it?
The broadcaster for each country appears in the kick-off block above as soon as the feed carries it.
What is the head-to-head record?
The feed holds no earlier meeting between the two.
Written by The data desk, 2026-11-12.
2 · Probabilities
The model’s numbers
- TAR
- 45%
- fair 2.24
- Draw
- 27%
- fair 3.70
- LEV
- 28%
- fair 3.54
Expected goals 1.38 v 1.04; most likely score 1-1; form sample 0 and 5 matches (thin sample, so no confident call).
3 · Selection
The model call
Model call
Double chance: Tarancón or Draw- Model probability
- 72%
- Confidence
- Outside the floor
- shown for the record, not a selection
- Reference price
- None
- probability-only until the odds feed
- Published
- 2026-11-12
- model v1.3.0
Every market, from the same scoreline grid
| Market | Pick | Prob. | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Tarancón or Draw | 72% | below the floor |
| Over 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 Goals | 70% | below the floor |
| Draw no bet | Tarancón (draw no bet) | 61% | below the floor |
| Under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 Goals | 57% | below the floor |
| Over under goals | Under 2.5 Goals | 57% | below the floor |
| Both teams to score | Both Teams to Score | 48% | below the floor |
| Match result (1X2) | Tarancón to win | 45% | below the floor |
| Over 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 Goals | 43% | below the floor |
| Half time full time | Draw / Tarancón | 33% | long shot |
| Win to nil | Tarancón to win to nil | 26% | long shot |
| Btts and win | Tarancón to win and both teams to score | 18% | long shot |
| Score draw | Score draw | 18% | long shot |
| Correct score | 1-1 | 13% | long shot |
| Nil nil draw | 0-0 draw | 9% | long shot |
How double chance settles. A model call beside the day’s published selection, settled in public like every other number here.
18+. Gambling helplines for Nigeria, Kenya, South Africa, Ghana and Uganda are on each country’s betting guide. Probabilities are the model\u2019s own numbers, never a promise.
4 · Evidence and team news
Expected line-ups
Line-ups appear here about an hour before kick-off, as soon as the feed carries them.
5 · Market explanation
Double chance
Cover two of the three outcomes at a shorter price. Read the guide.
6 · Betting options
Where you can act on it
7 · Methodology and record
How this call was made
Model v1.3.0 · desk Wanjiru Kamau · methodology · our full record · Tarancón v Levante head-to-head