Nigeria Premier Football League · Round 13 · Muhammadu Dikko Stadium
Kick-off in your time, where to watch, the shape of both sides and a selection we record in public.
- 16:00 WAT · Nigeria
- 18:00 EAT · Kenya
- 17:00 SAST · South Africa
- 15:00 GMT · Ghana
- 18:00 EAT · Uganda
2 · Probabilities
The model’s numbers
- KAT
- 44%
- fair 2.28
- Draw
- 25%
- fair 3.94
- NAS
- 31%
- fair 3.26
Expected goals 1.5 v 1.22; most likely score 1-1; form sample 5 and 5 matches.
3 · Selection
The model call
Model call
Over 1.5 goals: Over 1.5 Goals- Model probability
- 75%
- Confidence
- Confident
- at or above the model’s 60% floor
- Reference price
- None
- probability-only until the odds feed
- Published
- 2026-11-12
- model v1.3.0
Every market, from the same scoreline grid
| Market | Pick | Prob. | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 Goals | 75% | confident |
| Double chance | Katsina United or Draw | 69% | confident |
| Draw no bet | Katsina United (draw no bet) | 59% | below the floor |
| Both teams to score | Both Teams to Score | 55% | below the floor |
| Over 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 Goals | 51% | below the floor |
| Over under goals | Over 2.5 Goals | 51% | below the floor |
| Under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 Goals | 49% | below the floor |
| Match result (1X2) | Katsina United to win | 44% | below the floor |
| Half time full time | Draw / Katsina United | 30% | long shot |
| Win to nil | Katsina United to win to nil | 23% | long shot |
| Btts and win | Katsina United to win and both teams to score | 21% | long shot |
| Score draw | Score draw | 19% | long shot |
| Correct score | 1-1 | 12% | long shot |
| Nil nil draw | 0-0 draw | 7% | long shot |
How over 1.5 goals settles. A model call beside the day’s published selection, settled in public like every other number here.
18+. Gambling helplines for Nigeria, Kenya, South Africa, Ghana and Uganda are on each country’s betting guide. Probabilities are the model\u2019s own numbers, never a promise.
4 · Evidence and team news
Expected line-ups
Line-ups appear here about an hour before kick-off, as soon as the feed carries them.
6 · Betting options
Where you can act on it
7 · Methodology and record
How this call was made
Model v1.3.0 · desk Wanjiru Kamau · methodology · our full record · Katsina United v Nasarawa United head-to-head